- Energized
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- ⚡Crude pauses, awaiting today's data and FOMC
⚡Crude pauses, awaiting today's data and FOMC
Plus, CRG offers January oil market analysis
Doug Stetzer
January 29, 2025
January 29, 2025
PRESENTED BY: EKT INTERACTIVE ENERGY TRAINING
Uncertainty in the air as we work through some economic data the next few days and people dig into the real impact of DeepSeek.
But mainly are waiting for some midnight tweet on tariffs. Feb 1 is looming. So far, the tariff threat has been enough to bring parties in line but Canada and Mexico are a bit more complicated than two planes of deported immigrants.
Great podcast below by the guys at Commodity Research Group. Hope they keep them coming in 2025.
~Doug
What's in this issue:
Energy Market Recap
CRG - January Oil Market Analysis Podcast
Headlines
| Crude Oil (Mar) | $73.77 | +0.60 | +0.82% |
| Natural Gas (Mar) | $3.122 | -0.131 | -4.03% |
| Copper (Mar) | $4.2465 | +0.0150 | +0.35% |
| S&P 500 | 6,067.70 | +55.12 | +0.92% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 107.87 | +0.71 | +0.66% |
ENERGY MARKETS
🛢️Oil prices took a pause, ending the day up .8%. EIA data expected out later today.
Will OPEC+ Step In?
OPEC+ meets on Feb 3 and Trump's request for lower prices will be top of mind.
While the group certainly has the excess capacity to step in, and the recent rally had given them some cover to unravel production cuts, I just don't see them responding to this ask.
As CRG analyst Andy Lebow says in the podcast linked below, "The Saudis, they know that they'll be the last man standing no matter what."
WTI Spreads
Mar/Apr: +0.83
Mar/Dec: +5.51
Dec5/Dec6: +2.73
🔥Natural gas prices continue to unravel as we approach the expiration of the February contract on a warmer weather track coupled with the AI shakeup of the power industry outlook.
PRESENTED BY POWERING THE FUTURE
CRG - January oil market analysis
Commodity Research Group are old friends of EKT. They haven't done a podcast in a while, but I can't recommend it highly enough.
These guys have been doing this for a long time. There's a lot of experience to learn from here.
Key Points
Demand expectations - Growth of 1.0-1.2 mm bpd in 2025
Russia - lower exports by 400k per day
Volatility still low despite all that's going on
Producers selling into rally
Lack of out of the money call buying despite upside unknowns
HEADLINES
"On Feb. 3, its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), a group of top ministers which can recommend policy changes, is scheduled to meet."
"Traders dumped shares of natural-gas producers, pipeline operators, power-plant owners, miners of coal and uranium, and even big land owners in the West Texas desert."
"The combined company is expected to generate substantial free cash flow, delivering strong, consistent shareholder value creation through disciplined debt reduction, a sustainable fixed dividend, and strategic share repurchases."
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday - New home sales
Tuesday - Durable goods
Wednesday - FOMC, Weekly Crude Oil Storage Report,
Thursday - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, GDP, Jobless Claims
Friday -