- Energized
- Posts
- ⚡Data Breach
April 17, 2025
Morning everyone,
Yesterday’s move in equities was a one-two punch. The first out of the White House with restrictions on Nvidia chip sales.
The second, Powell coming out and saying what every executive in the country is thinking (and increasingly saying out loud), uncertainty is destroying the ability to make long term decisions in this economy.
The combination of higher prices and higher unemployment will sideline the Fed’s ability to address conflicting problems.
The Nasdaq ended lower by 3% while the Dow shed 700 points. Nvidia dropped 7%.
What's in this issue:
Energy Market Recap
EIA Reports Build, Sort of
Data Breach
Headlines
| Crude Oil (May) | $62.47 | +1.14 | +1.86% |
| Natural Gas (May) | $3.247 | -0.082 | -2.46% |
| Copper (May) | $4.6855 | +0.0595 | +1.29% |
| S&P 500 | 5,275.70 | -120.93 | -2.24% |
| Dollar Index (DX) | 99.14 | -0.82 | -0.82% |
Energy Markets
🛢️WTI climbed 1.9% yesterday on the heels of more pressure on Iranian oil exports through sanctions on Chinese “teapot” refineries.
“The Treasury on Wednesday said it imposed sanctions on a China-based independent "teapot" refinery it accused of playing a role in purchasing more than $1 billion worth of Iranian crude oil. It was the second small independent Chinese refinery sanctioned by the Trump administration so far.”
The Trump Administration has made one thing clear: We will apply maximum pressure on Iran and disrupt the regime’s oil supply chain and exports, which support terrorist proxies and partners.
Any refinery, company, or broker that chooses to purchase Iranian oil or facilitate
— Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent)
6:53 PM • Apr 16, 2025
EIA Reports Inventory Build, Sort of…
The EIA’s weekly inventory report showed a small build of 500,000 barrels, in line with analyst expectations.
However, with 1.8 million of the build coming on the West Coast, the report was perhaps more bullish than the headline number suggested.
Inventories are now 6% below the 5-year average for this time of year, but are rebounding from winter lows.
Gasoline and distillates showed inventory draws of 2.0 and 1.9 million barrels, respectively.
Source: EIA
WTI Spreads
May/June: +0.64
Jun/Dec: +2.33
Dec5/Dec6: -0.24
🔥 Natural gas ended yesterday lower by 2.5%.
The market faces competing forces where low prices crimp incentive to produce, yet will also increase demand once summer temps, and power demand, kick in.
However, as HFI research showed in a recent post, associated gas production continues to climb.
Source: HFI Research
PRESENTED BY ENERGY 101
From oil and gas to power and renewables, we have you covered. Groups of ten or more? We can create a custom course from over 50 available course modules to suit your needs.
Data Breach
Over 100 people, or 40% of the staff at the EIA, have accepted the latest round of resignation offers.
You may have noticed that this newsletter, and, well, the entire global oil market, relies on data put out by this institution.
According to Reuters, sources at the agency say that it will be impossible to keep up with the current data publication schedule.
"As far as continuing publication, it's hard to say. I can't envision how, over time, they'll continue," one of the sources said about the weekly energy data.”
Analyst John Kilduff puts it this way:
"The EIA data contributed greatly to price discovery and it leveled the playing field. It would be very damaging to not have that data.”
Elaborating that “He has looked at the EIA's data weekly and used it as an input for every model over more than 20 years.”
Headlines
"Approximately 70% of our aluminum produced in Canada is destined for U.S. customers and is now subject to 25% tariff costs ... Currently the net annual result is approximately $100 million negative for our business," CEO William Oplinger said during a post-earnings conference call.”
+Alcoa expects $90 million tariff hit in second quarter, sees duties on China raising annual costs - Reuters
“I will not renounce oil and gas . . . because I am not a magician. The only way I have of financing all of my electricity investments . . . is because I take the cash from oil and gas.”
+How oil major TotalEnergies avoided a green energy U-turn - FT
“Uncertainty about the scale and breadth of tariffs, uncertainty over the strategic plan of the US administration, and the degree to which America’s trade partners will respond.”
+Gold Hits Fresh Record as Trade War, Powell Fire Up Haven Demand - Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Monday -
Tuesday - Empire State Manufacturing
Wednesday - Retail Sales, Cap U, Crude Oil Storage Report, Fed Minutes
Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Natural Gas Storage Report
Friday -