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April 7, 2025
Morning everyone,
Equity futures and Asian markets are signaling that the selling isn’t over yet.
In Japan, a 9% plunge in markets triggered a pause in trading.
“The “circuit breaker” system calls for a 10-minute pause in trading when the widely traded Nikkei 225 futures product is poised to rise or fall more than 8%.”
Fed minutes (Wed) and CPI data (Thurs) will be closely watched. As will every Fed Governor and President that is speaking this week (every day).
What's in this issue:
Energy Market Recap
Headlines
| Crude Oil (May) | $61.99 | -4.96 | -7.41% |
| Natural Gas (May) | $3.837 | -0.301 | -7.27% |
| Copper (May) | $4.4020 | -0.4265 | -8.83% |
| S&P 500 | 5,074.08 | -322.44 | -5.97% |
| Dollar Index (DX) | 102.77 | +0.97 | +0.95% |
Energy Markets
🛢️WTI was down 7.41% on Friday and 10.63% on the week. As of the time of this writing, crude is down another 2% as the market eyes a $50 handle. Prices had briefly dipped into the $50s be fore recovering slightly.
In fact, looking further out along the curve, prices are already there.
Narrator: WTI 2026 calendar strip is under $60 a barrel #OOTT
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas)
1:22 PM • Apr 4, 2025
WTI Spreads
June/Dec as well as Dec5/Dec6 moved in almost a full dollar as the front of the curve collapses relative to the back. As recession fears take hold, the premium of the front over the back has evaporated.
May/June: +0.34
Jun/Dec: +1.83
Dec5/Dec6: +0.34
🔥 Natural gas could no longer defy gravity and fell 7.3% on Friday, capping of a 5.6% move lower for the week.
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Headlines
“Global players have been vying for U.S. LNG projects to diversify their supply base and potentially fend off US tariffs under the Trump administration, by increasing energy imports and narrowing trade deficits that irk the U.S. president.”
+Stonepeak to acquire 40% stake in Woodside Energy's Louisiana LNG project - Reuters
“The overproduction, as OPEC+ calls it (or cheating, as I prefer), last month reached nearly 850,000 barrels a day, about the same as Venezuela’s output”
+The Cheating Game Inside the OPEC+ Oil Cartel - Bloomberg
“I love searching for gold. It’s what we do,”
+Gold Price Hike Sparks Surge In Electronic Metal Detecting - ZeroHedge
Economic Calendar
Monday -
Tuesday - NFIB Optimism Index
Wednesday - Crude Oil Storage Report, Fed Minutes
Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims, CPI, Natural Gas Storage Report
Friday - PPI