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March 11, 2025
Morning everyone,
Well, I’m sure you don’t need me to recap what went on yesterday. But just in case Energized is literally your only source of information, equity markets got crushed.
The Nasdaq lost 4% as tech took it on the chin. The Dow fell 890, but was down 1,200 at one point. The SP500 was lower by 2.7%.
Energy was actually a source of relative calm (both XLE and XLU ended higher on the day).
Markets had been teetering in the wake of weak economic data last week, but turns out no one was waiting around for the next data point after Trump refused to rule out that a recession could be a little side effect of his agenda in an interview over the weekend.
Source: Polymarket
What's in this issue:
Energy Market Recap
Executive Disorder
Headlines
| Crude Oil (Apr) | $66.03 | -1.01 | -1.51% |
| Natural Gas (Apr) | $4.491 | +0.092 | +2.09% |
| Copper (May) | $4.6665 | -0.0435 | -0.92% |
| S&P 500 | 5,614.56 | -155.64 | -2.70% |
| Dollar Index (DX) | 103.95 | +0.14 | +0.13% |
Energy Markets
🛢️WTI had crept higher overnight before falling with the rest of the market on the open. Crude ended lower by 1.5% on the day and continues to find support around $66 (for now).
Iran and China remain unresolved, although “maximum pressure” is still the game plan:
“Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes, according to six sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject.”
A US recession outweighs any of that. Trump doesn’t like a down stock market, but he wants lower oil prices.
WTI Spreads
Apr/May: +0.35
Jun/Dec: +2.18
Dec5/Dec6: +1.30
🔥Natural gas hit a high of $4.901 after yesterday’s close, but spent the rest of the session trying to hold on to gains as markets crumpled all around it.
It ended the session higher by 2.1%.
Natgasweather.com currently has its weekly nat gas demand gauge set to “Very Low”, although, there is still a chance for cold weather blowing through later in the week.
We may be past pure weather-driven pricing at this point as storage concerns (both Europe and US) and LNG demand have taken the wheel.
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Executive Disorder
Source: CERAWeek
The same uncertainties that are upending equity markets are just making it hard to do business in general - and that includes energy. Executives are pushing for a more measured approach.
Capital intensive businesses are making 30-year investment decisions. Leaders know that executive orders are just as easily overturned by the next administration as they were to enact in the first place.
“At a private dinner on Sunday night ahead of the conference, chief executives made the same request to Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, asking the White House to rely less on executive orders and more on legislation to achieve its goals, according to one person who was present.”
Aamir Paul, president of Schneider Electric North America spoke specifically to free trade agreements that have been shredded.
“If they think there is a better structure to the [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement], fine. The sooner they can renegotiate that and stabilise that environment the better.”
Even when Congress is involved, industry knows that, in the long term, certain regulations just make sense.
Today the Senate passed a resolution against the methane emission fee. This is a mistake. Many large NG producers quietly support methane regs because they know the industry is stronger in the long term if viewed as responsible stewards of the environment.
Nat gas is and will… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn)
7:58 PM • Feb 27, 2025
Headlines
"We saw companies start to pull back. Corporate spending started to stall," CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC. "Consumers in a discretionary business do not like uncertainty."
+Delta cuts profit forecast as US economic uncertainty hits travel - Reuters
“Until the threat of tariffs is gone for good, Ontario won't back down. We'll stand strong, use every tool in our toolkit and do whatever it takes to protect Ontario."
+Ontario imposes 25% surcharge on electricity exports to US - Reuters
“The manager of an oil tanker on fire near the UK said the vessel spilled jet fuel after it was crashed into by a cargo ship off the country’s east coast.”
+Blazing Tanker Spills Jet Fuel After Accident Off UK Coast - Bloomberg
“Chinese vehicle exports to Russia last year hit seven times the level of 2022 as sanctions over the war in Ukraine cut the country off from western brands, according to the China Passenger Car Association.”
+Russia imposes fees to stem flood of low-cost Chinese cars - FT
Economic Calendar
Monday -
Tuesday -
Wednesday - CPI, Crude Oil Storage Report
Thursday - Natural Gas Storage Report, Jobless Claims, PPI
Friday - Consumer Sentiment