⚡Oil Rallies on Venezuela Tariff

March 25, 2025

Morning everyone,

Equities bounced as tariffs are seen to be narrowing in scope and becoming more targeted - the scalpel that both markets and industries were hoping for to begin with.

As quoted in Reuters:

“and said he may give "a lot of countries" breaks on tariffs, but provided no details.”

~Doug​

What's in this issue:

• Energy Market Recap

• Headlines

Energy Markets

🛢️WTI rose by 1.2%, closing above $69 for the first time since Feb 28, on news that Trump will impose a 25% tariff on any country buying oil and gas from Venezuela.

Of course, this move in prices is counter to what the administration has repeatedly said is its goal - cheap oil.

As analyst John Kilduff told the WSJ:

“I think to the extent that any of these moves start to impact and push up the price of oil, we’ve seen that he’s going to back off. He doesn’t want to hurt the U.S. economy, which that will do.”

WTI Spreads

May/June: +0.45
Jun/Dec: +2.75
Dec5/Dec6: +1.96

🔥 Natural gas declined by 1.66% as weather demand eases despite some brief cold spells in parts of the nation. Renewables generation is also kicking in, as noted by Natgasweather in the WSJ:

“LNG feedgas flows remain supportive, while much stronger year-over-year wind and solar energy generation are likely a negative influence, the forecaster adds.”

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Headlines

“Like many U.S. operators, Seaboard relies on vessels made in China. It has 16 China-built ships in its fleet of 24 vessels, according to maritime data provider Alphaliner.”
+Trump's port fees on Chinese ships threaten US maritime industry, say executives - Reuters

“It has already shown signs of success in competing with European refiners on gasoline exports, and the jet fuel shipments to the United States could challenge domestic producers' economics in the largest fuel consuming nation.”
+US jet fuel imports surge as Nigeria's Dangote refinery pushes barrels west - Reuters

“The principal regulatory hurdle concerned Italy and a requirement that Carlyle provide financial guarantees for the Italian subsidiary that would ultimately own the assets, people familiar with the process said.”
+Carlyle’s $945mn Mediterranean energy deal collapses - FT

Economic Calendar

Monday -
Tuesday - Home price index, New home sales, Consumer confidence
Wednesday - Crude Oil Storage Report, Durable goods
Thursday - Natural Gas Storage Report, Jobless Claims, GDP
Friday - Consumer sentiment