⚡Open for Business

March 20, 2025

Morning everyone,

Equity markets erased the declines from a couple of sessions ago despite the Fed holding rates steady, cutting growth forecasts, and lifting inflation forecasts.

Expectations still lean towards two rate cuts this year, however the majority holding this view has narrowed.

As Fed Chair Powell put it:

“We think it’s a good time for us to await for further clarity,”

~Doug​

What's in this issue:

• Energy Market Recap

• EIA Reports Larger Build

• Open for Business

• Headlines

Energy Markets

🛢️WTI ended the day higher by .39%, just holding on to positive gains for the day. The market caught a bid despite EIA inventory data coming in with a larger build than expected.

The EIA reported a build of 1.7 million barrels versus expectations for a build around 500,000.

The April contract expires today, so we’ll start looking at May.

WTI Spreads

Apr/May: +0.25
Jun/Dec: +2.20
Dec5/Dec6: +1.34

🔥 Natural gas jumped by 4.8% as some weather demand is expected to move in later this week.

The reality of the challenges ahead for a ceasefire in Ukraine caused European gas prices to jump around 7%, bringing the resupply of inventories there back to the forefront.

EIA inventory data due out later today. Expectations are for a draw of just 12 bcf.

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Open For Business

With the dealmaker in chief doing his thing, the world is on notice. And some countries are taking that to mean we’re open for business.

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Félix Tshisekedi, has sent a letter to the White House proposing a deal - help boot the M23 rebels back to Rwanda in exchange for access to its treasure trove of minerals.

“Our partnership would provide the U.S. with a strategic advantage by securing critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, copper and tantalum from the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Just to hedge its bets, the Congolese government is also in talks with Erik Prince, formerly of the controversial private security company Blackwater that operated during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But we’re done with international interventions, right?

Well, our bombing of the Houthis in Yemen skirts that line. The administration argues that there is no interest in regime change in Yemen, so attacking rebels on foreign soil is different in that case.

To be fair, Biden did a fair share of bombing of Houthi targets as well.

Headlines

“Guy Keller, portfolio manager of a nuclear-energy sector fund at Tribeca Investment Partners, said that sector specialists try to ignore the spot price because more than 95% of the real trading in uranium happens in long-term contracts.”
+Uranium Bulls Get Spooked by Unknowns From Canada to Russia - WSJ

“During a phone call Monday with Rubio, the Chevron CEO said that the company’s withdrawal from Venezuela would allow China and other U.S. adversaries to increase their presence in the country”
+Chevron CEO Lobbies for More Time to Wind Down Venezuela Operations - WSJ

“According to BYD, the platform has charging power of 1,000 kilowatt and takes up to 1,000 amps. This means it can charge batteries at a rate of about 2km per second and add 400km in range in five minutes.”
+BYD’s 5-minute charge: is time running out for electric-vehicle rivals? - FT

“Turkey's lira currency crashed as much as 12% to an all time low of 42 to the dollar in response, underscoring worries over the eroding rule of law in the major emerging market and NATO member country that Erdogan has run for 22 years.”
+Turkey detains Istanbul mayor in what opposition calls 'coup' - Reuters

Economic Calendar

Monday - Retail Sales
Tuesday - Housing Starts, Cap U
Wednesday - Crude Oil Storage Report, FOMC
Thursday - Natural Gas Storage Report, Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales
Friday -