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March 12, 2025
Morning everyone,
Oil ended up and nat gas down as both take counter-trend pauses. Tit for tat continues as Canada and the US agree to pull back some tariffs and use the opportunity to sit down.
Equity markets continue to show how they feel about the uncertainty.
Ceasefire talks in Ukraine have taken a step forward, however EU reps at CERAWeek downplay any return to dependence on Russia’s exports saying:
"Do we really want to be dependent on energy from an aggressor like Russia? Obviously not,"
What's in this issue:
Energy Market Recap
EIA Expectations
Headlines
| Crude Oil (Apr) | $66.25 | +0.22 | +0.33% |
| Natural Gas (Apr) | $4.453 | -0.038 | -0.85% |
| Copper (May) | $4.7660 | +0.0995 | +2.13% |
| S&P 500 | 5,572.07 | -42.29 | -0.76% |
| Dollar Index (DX) | 103.27 | -0.68 | -0.65% |
Energy Markets
🛢️WTI ended yesterday’s trading session just barely on the positive side, up by .33%. A low print of $65.29 was put up overnight before rallying through mid day and pulling back from a high of $67.20.
EIA expectations for today’s inventory numbers are for a build of 2.0 million barrels. CRG’s estimates are in line with the consensus.
WTI Spreads
Apr/May: +0.32
Jun/Dec: +2.26
Dec5/Dec6: +1.37
🔥Natural gas prices ended lower by .85% after hitting a session high of $4.588 before the open and sliding most of the afternoon.
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It’s Better Than AI
Seriously, just read this…
John Arnold, an energy and natural gas market expert, digesting a huge data dump by JP Morgan’s Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Michael Cembalest.
According to JPM website:
“Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.”
You can find the full report here.
And John Arnold’s summary here:
Each year, Michael Cembalest at JPM publishes a fantastic, unbiased summary of the state of energy and climate. I find his data invaluable for staying grounded in the facts. Here are 20 slides that stood out to me. His data, my commentary. Link to the report at the end.
1/x— John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn)
2:02 PM • Mar 11, 2025
Headlines
“The combined company will become the largest landholder in the Alberta Montney and the second-largest landholder across unconventional Montney and Duvernay fairways with 1.5 million acres in Alberta. Together, production is expected to reach 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, 63% of which are liquids.”
+Whitecap Resources, Veren to Merge in a $10.4 Billion All-Share Deal - WSJ
“In the market for cobalt, analysts said there was a greater risk of “substitution”, in which the battery metal could be replaced by an alternative mineral or designed out of batteries.”
+Glencore backs cobalt investment company planning to list in London - FT
Economic Calendar
Monday -
Tuesday -
Wednesday - CPI, Crude Oil Storage Report
Thursday - Natural Gas Storage Report, Jobless Claims, PPI
Friday - Consumer Sentiment