⚡Peace Deals and Tariffs

March 3, 2025

PRESENTED BY: POWERING THE FUTURE

Morning everyone,

Welcome to March! It’s 65 one day and snowing the next here in Colorado. Sounds like a metaphor of some sort.

With a couple of misses in economic numbers last week, people will have a closer eye on data this week to confirm whether these were one-off or a trend.

This includes oil inventories that posted a draw while the consensus was for a build in inventories.

~Doug​

What's in this issue:

• Energy Market Recap

• Headlines

Energy Markets

🛢️WTI was down by .84% and .9% on the week. The world is trying to figure out if the US brokered peace deal in Ukraine is now completely off the table and, if so, will Europe stand in to make their own.

WTI Spreads

Apr/May: +0.42
Jun/Dec: +2.81
Dec5/Dec6: +2.14

🔥Natural gas gave up 7% last week after the strong rally higher on cold weather.

Natgasweather.com has their natural gas demand meter firmly set at ‘very low’ for the week through March 5.

PRESENTED BY POWERING THE FUTURE
A curated course featuring today’s most relevant topics

Powering the Future pulls together content from across our Oil 101, Power 101, and Renewables courses. These lessons dive into the topics that are driving headlines and capital flows today.

Modules include introductions to natural gas, LNG, nuclear power, hydrogen, energy storage management, renewable power generation, and the grid.

Political Risk - Tariffs and Ukraine

Europe Peace Deal

The world watched the scene unfold in the Oval Office. The question is whether any US-brokered peace deal went with it.

President Trump has been telling Europe that it will have to go it alone. That may be happening as France and Britain are putting together their own peace deal for Ukraine.

The US, however, is still needed to backstop the plan.

Sounds, well, complicated…

Tariffs on Tuesday

Commerce Secretary Lutnick has said that tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as additional levels on China, will be rolled out on Tuesday.

Although, in a nod to the realities of his boss, he calls it a ‘fluid situation.’

Headline

“Time is of the essence for data center customers; they may prefer to ink contracts that involve less regulatory uncertainty. “It’s not just the money, it’s really the time,” notes Stephen Byrd, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.”
+AI Fever in Power Stocks Moves From Nuclear to Plain Natural Gas - WSJ

“Anemic natural-gas prices and rising capacity in chemical manufacturing have caused the petrochemical market to languish recently. “
+Shell Explores Sale of Chemicals Assets in U.S. and Europe - WSJ

“The question for the market is whether it's likely that LNG companies have the ability to actually increase supply by that much and, if they do, what kind of price incentives will be necessary to make sure the investments happen.”
+Shell's LNG optimism for Asia has a volume vs price conundrum: Russell - Reuters

Economic Calendar

Monday - ISM
Tuesday -
Wednesday - ADP Employment, PMI, Crude Oil Storage Report
Thursday - Natural Gas Storage Report, Jobless Claims,
Friday - US Jobs Report, Employment Rate