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February 26, 2025
PRESENTED BY: POWERING THE FUTURE
Morning everyone,
At 10am EST yesterday, consumer confidence came in weak. The previous week’s reading was 105.3 and consensus estimates were for a number around 102. The reading? 98.3.
WTI promptly lost almost 2% and stayed there the rest of the day (along with equities and the dollar).
Later in the day, Trump talked Mexico and Canada tariffs (still on for March in case you forgot about that) and a mineral deal with Ukraine.
Alcoa’s CEO said that tariffs would cost 100,000 jobs in the US.
War ending, tariff game plan still in effect.
What's in this issue:
Energy Market Recap
EIA Expectations
What Minerals
Headlines
| Crude Oil (Apr) | $68.93 | -1.77 | -2.50% |
| Natural Gas (Mar) | $4.174 | +0.180 | +4.51% |
| Copper (Mar) | $4.4815 | -0.0335 | -0.74% |
| S&P 500 | 5,955.25 | -28.00 | -0.47% |
| Dollar Index (DX) | 106.23 | -0.29 | -0.27% |
Energy Markets
🛢️WTI ended lower by 2.5% on the day as economic uncertainty is turning into certainty (certain the economy is slowing).
Additionally, more and more, an end to the Ukraine war is crystalizing and the dealmaker in chief has energy and minerals in his crosshairs.
EIA Expectations
EIA data due out later today. CRG’s Andy Lebow expects a build in crude oil inventories of 3.3 million barrels vs consensus expectations of 2.6 mm.
Further, he expects distillates and gasoline to draw 1.5 and 0.8 million barrels, respectively.
WTI Spreads
Apr/May: +0.24
Jun/Dec: +2.22
Dec5/Dec6: +1.94
🔥Natural gas rebounded by 4.5% as another large draw is expected in this weeks inventories due to last week’s weather.
Additionally, LNG demand remains strong.
“The global trade in LNG is set to rise significantly by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, the need to decarbonise heavy industry and transport and the emerging growth in the energy-intense tech sector,”
PRESENTED BY POWERING THE FUTURE
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Powering the Future pulls together content from across our Oil 101, Power 101, and Renewables courses. These lessons dive into the topics that are driving headlines and capital flows today.
Modules include introductions to natural gas, LNG, nuclear power, hydrogen, energy storage management, renewable power generation, and the grid.
What Minerals?
Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas has posted data on this before, but apparently the latest maneuvering by Trump compelled him to make this short video.
The topic: Ukraine’s rare earths are so rare they aren’t even there.
VIDEO COLUMN: Fantasy minerals.
Many people — not least of all, US President Donald Trump — seem convinced Ukraine has a lot of rare earths minerals. It’s utter nonsense.
#Ukraine#UkraineWar@opinion
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas)
10:27 PM • Feb 25, 2025
Headline
“MMG is betting the supply glut won't last beyond this decade, when a combination of steady growth in global stainless steel production and exponentially higher demand from the battery sector will create supply deficits.”
+China's grip on global nickel supply tightens with Anglo sale - Reuters
“The US imports about 45 per cent of the copper it consumes, according to research by ING Bank. Chile and Canada are its biggest suppliers — providing 35 per cent and 26 per cent of imports respectively — and would be hardest hit by any levies.”
+US orders probe into copper dumping, opening door to new tariffs - FT
“The energy giant’s plan to cut oil and gas production will also be scrapped, while targets to increase renewable power generation will be scaled back”
+BP to Prepare Lubricants Sale, Ditch Plan to Cut Oil Output in Strategy Review - Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Monday -
Tuesday - Case-Schiller, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday - New Home Sales, Crude Oil Storage Report
Thursday - Natural Gas Storage Report, Jobless Claims, GDP
Friday -